EUR/USD: the outlook remains negative
The euro corrected upwards, and the EUR/USD pair rose during today’s European trading session after a 5-day decline the day before. Thus, by the start of today’s American trading session, the price reached an important short-term resistance level of 1.0519, rising from today’s and a 2-week minimum reached near 1.0453.
Meanwhile, in the aggregate of several fundamental factors, further growth of the dollar looks more likely than its any prolonged decline.
This fully applies to the EUR/USD pair, especially given the «dovish» mood in the ECB leadership. As you know, the next and last meeting of the ECB this year ended on Thursday: for the 4th time in a row, the bank’s leaders cut interest rates and expressed a tendency to further easing policy in 2025 against the backdrop of slowing inflation and the region’s economy. Despite today’s correction, in general, the euro and the EUR/USD pair remain under pressure from these powerful fundamental factors.
The earliest signal for new short positions here could be a breakout of the «round» mark of 1.0500, and a confirmatory signal – today’s and local minimum of 1.0453.
The nearest targets could be the marks of 1.0335 and 1.0250, between which the lower line of the descending channel on the weekly chart of EUR/USD passes.
In an alternative scenario, a breakout of the important short-term resistance level of 1.0519 could help the price develop an upward correction with targets at the resistance levels of 1.0600, 1.0612. In any case, the correction, in our opinion, will be limited by the resistance level of 1.0670.
Overall, a strong bearish momentum prevails, and the current corrective growth will most likely still be limited by the resistance zone near the “round” mark of 1.0500 and the mark of 1.0520, while EUR/USD continues to develop a downward dynamic in the bear market zone, medium-term – below the key resistance level of 1.0810, long-term – below the key resistance level of 1.0940, making short positions relevant.
